With the recent findings from the asteroid Bennu and the stumbled-upon pure Sulfur rocks found on Mars I have taken to thinking about the future of extraterrestrial mining. In my opinion, we may be much closer than previously thought to mining other planets. Here are some reasons why:
Potential Sulphur shortage
There is some speculation that us denizens of earth are going to run out of sulfuric acid. Given the increasing needs for fertilizer, it might be the case that we exhaust our sulfur supplies terrestrially. At least one study points to projections that the global demand for sulfur is going to rise from 246 presently to 400 million tons by 2040. The way Sulfur has been obtained in the present and recent past is as a byproduct of oil refining. The converging trends of an increased demand and decreased (Earth-based) supply as the world transitions away from fossil fuels may cause us to look toward Mars for these resources.
A shortage of sulfur would have wide-ranging implications, from conventional agriculture to manufacturing and construction. It could end up being one of the major issues of the 22nd century.
Decreased cost of Space Travel
In the past only wealthy governments or corporations could afford to send people or satellites into space. Nowadays even countries in the global south are getting in on the action. But the greatest indication of all that space travel is now accessible is the affordability of space travel for individuals. Granted, these are some of the richest folks in the world, but still these people's level of accumulated wealth is a rounding error compared to the annual budgets of some countries. As costs come down payloads are likely to get bigger.
Availability of Sulfur on Mars
When Mark Twain was traveling the West he was on a tour of a gold mine and the tour guide said that there was so much gold here all one had to do was pick it up off the ground. To which Twain replied, "You mean I have to bend over?" If the sulfur mining robots of the future could complain perhaps they would make a similar claim about the rocks on Mars. The discovery of pure sulfur rocks on Mars was a complete accident. The Curiosity rover ran some rocks over and they split apart. When reviewing the footage workers at NASA identified the rocks as pure sulfur. The mineral makeup of the Mount Sharp area where the rover is heavy in sulfates like gypsum and other sulfur containing minerals, but this marks the first time finding pure sulfur. If it is possible to find pure sulfur by accident above ground imagine what is possible once we have a better grasp of Martian geology (Marsology?) and begin the search below ground.
The Advance of AI
While Large Language Models are making a lot of buzz and changing the way we work, good old-fashioned robots are also advancing. Miners will likely have until the end of most of their lifetimes to wait before being completely replaced by AI it is possible that sulfur mining on Mars will be the catalyst that forces the development of robot technology in the mining industry. Advances in autonomous driving and developments in machine learning may lead to a collaborative approach between human and robot miners in the future. While we are still unsure that small groups of humans can make it to Mars with their sanity intact, it is likely that any mining done on the Red Planet will be entirely done by robots. The experiments mining on asteroids and other extraterrestrial bodies will lead to advances that propitiate mining on earth, perhaps making investment in this technology worth it even as sulfur remains plentiful on Earth.
Earth First! We'll Mine Other Planets Later
So reads a bumper-sticker my dad had on one of his old cars. Given the factors I mentioned "later" might be sooner than once thought. While the initial mining efforts may be more scientific than commercial in nature it is quite possible that there will be off-planet mines in the foreseeable future.
